Published October 25, 2026 in Market Update

One part of this market is moving faster with fewer choices

By Scott Peck

Real estate, Tier 2 - Prem North /Hill Country Edge- Strong Value steady exp. cherry picked prospects

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.32% as of October 22, 2026. That is a real headwind for buyers. But even at that rate, parts of this market are not slowing down. The numbers from the Real Estate Data Aggregator for the three months ending August 31, 2026 show a market that is not moving the same way in every ZIP code. One area stands out from the rest.

78261 is the one to watch right now

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 140 homes sold in ZIP 78261 in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 26.1% from the same three months in 2025. At the same time, homes for sale there fell 24.9%. More buyers, fewer homes. That combination changes how you have to think about timing and price.

Nearly 3 in 10 homes in 78261 went under contract within two weeks of listing, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. That share is 29%, up 12.7 points from a year ago. That is the biggest jump in quick contracts across all six ZIP codes in this market. Sellers who price well are not waiting long.

How the other ZIP codes compare

The rest of this market tells a more mixed story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 719 homes sold across all six ZIP codes in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 7.3% from a year ago. Total homes for sale across the market fell 6.1%. So the overall direction is toward less inventory. But the details by ZIP code are very different.

ZIP 78258 had the fastest median sale at 41 days, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. It also had the highest share of homes going under contract within two weeks: 32.7%. That share rose 1.4 points from a year ago. And nearly 1 in 5 homes there sold above list price. That is a market where priced-right homes are still getting attention.

ZIP 78260 is a different picture. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows the median sale price there fell 4.7% to $499,000. Days on market stretched to 61, up 14 days from a year ago. Homes for sale dropped 25.2%, yet the median price still slipped. That tells you buyers have more negotiating room there even with fewer choices.

ZIP 78256 is the one that needs the most honest look. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted only 20 homes sold there in the three months ending August 31, 2026, down 25.9% from a year ago. Months of supply hit 7.8, up 3.6 months from a year ago. No home sold above list price. That is a slow corner of this market right now.

Spring Branch and Boerne: two more honest reads

ZIP 78070 in Spring Branch had 253 homes for sale and only 100 sold in the three months ending August 31, 2026, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Months of supply sat at 7.8. The median sale price dropped 30.8% to $394,950. That is a large price shift. It likely reflects a change in the mix of homes that sold, not a collapse in value. But buyers in Spring Branch have more room to negotiate right now.

Boerne's 78015 held steadier. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median sale price at $600,000, up just 0.8% from a year ago. Homes sold faster: the median dropped 6 days to 44. And months of supply ticked down slightly to 3.7. It is not a fast market, but it is a stable one.

What the national picture adds

The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September 2026, reaching 3.99 million units. National inventory climbed to 1.60 million homes. So nationally, supply is growing. This market's overall inventory is moving the other direction, down 6.1% across all six ZIP codes. That gap matters for local sellers.

Mortgage rates are still a real factor. Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed rate at 7.32% as of October 22, 2026. CNBC reported that a monthly payment on a median-priced home now takes up 33% of median family income. That is up from 26% in 2022. Buyers are stretching further. That is why pricing has to be sharp.