Published October 2, 2026 in Market Update

Prices are splitting by area across this market

By Scott Peck

Real estate, Tier 4 - Central Prestige / I-35 NE Farm High Volume One offs, fill in volume , work opportunity

Redfin reported U.S. home prices rose 3.7% year over year in August. That number sounds reassuring. But it does not describe what is happening on your street. Across ZIP codes 78209, 78212, 78230, 78154, and 78108, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 784 homes sold in the three months ending July 31, 2026. Price trends inside that number point in completely different directions.

One ZIP up 13.7%. Others down double digits.

ZIP 78209 was the clear standout. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put its median sale price at $570,000 for the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is up 13.7% from the same period in 2025. Sales volume rose too. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 161 homes sold there, up 10.3% year over year. Pending sales climbed 17.4%. That is real momentum.

The other four ZIP codes told a quieter story. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed ZIP 78212 down 12.1% to a median of $351,500. ZIP 78230 dropped 8.3% to $382,450. ZIP 78154 fell 7.7% to $349,990. ZIP 78108 held flat at $350,000, unchanged from a year before. Three of those four ZIPs also saw fewer homes sold than last year.

Year-over-year price change tells the real story

A 13.7% gain and a 12.1% drop in the same market, at the same time. That is a wide split. The national number from Redfin lands somewhere in the middle of all of it and describes none of it accurately.

Homes are taking longer to sell across the board

Every ZIP code saw days on market climb. The Real Estate Data Aggregator showed ZIP 78108 at 76 days, up 16 days from a year ago. ZIP 78212 hit 75 days, up 19 days. ZIP 78209 came in at 57 days, still up 5 days. ZIP 78154 was at 58 days, up 4 days. ZIP 78230 was the fastest at 47 days, though that was still 15 days longer than the year before. Sellers need to plan for more time on the market than they would have in 2025.

Rates are adding pressure from outside the market

It is not just local supply and demand at work. CNBC reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.45% as of September 24, 2026. Realtor.com reported rates surged above 7% for the first time since January 2025. Realtor.com also noted that 20.8% of listings nationally had a price reduction in September, the highest share since October 2022. That context matters. Buyers have less room in their budgets, and sellers in softer ZIPs are feeling it.

The market overall is still moving

Across all five ZIP codes combined, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 835 pending sales in the three months ending July 31, 2026. That is up 6.9% from a year ago. New listings across the group came in at 1,057, down 3.6%. Homes for sale totaled 1,301, down 4.6%. So inventory is tightening even as prices soften in some areas. That is a mix worth understanding before you price anything.

What this means for you

The National Association of Realtors reported existing home sales up 1.6% year to date through the first eight months of 2026. Nationally, things are moving. But in this market, the ZIP code you are in shapes your result more than any national trend. ZIP 78209 is doing something very different from ZIP 78212, even though they sit close to each other on a map.

One street can read very differently from the ZIP code around it. If you want to know where your home sits inside these numbers, I am happy to take a closer look.